我国工业碳强度的空间分布及影响因素研究

在分析1998—2008年我国工业碳排放和碳强度空间分布特点的基础上,基于省际面板数据,建立回归分析模型,探索地区工业碳强度变化的原因。研究发现,省际工业碳排放量和碳强度的分布存在明显的空间差异;回归分析显示,地区工业总产值在全国所占比例越高,其工业碳强度越低,工业资本有机构成提高有利于降低工业碳强度,但其效应较为微弱,地区工业结构中大中型企业比例增加、重型工业和国有企业比例减少均有利于降低工业碳强度。研究结论的政策含义在于,各地区在发展工业经济的过程中应积极推动工业结构调整以降低工业碳强度,要鼓励企业在市场竞争中壮大规模,防范重工业过度扩张和积极发展非国有经济。

Study on the Spatial Distribution of China' s Industrial Carbon Intensity and Its Influencing Factors

This paper analyzes the characteristics of China’s industrial CO2 emissions and carbon intensity spatial distribution from 1998 to 2008,then establishes regression models to explore the influencing factors of regional industrial carbon intensity.The empirical results are as follows:Firstly,there exist obvious differences among the spatial distributions of provincial industrial carbon emissions and carbon intensity.Secondly,the result of the regressions indicates that the higher the proportion of regional gross industrial output value in the country is,the lower its industrial carbon intensity will be.It also indicates that the increase of the capital-labor ratio is in favor of reducing carbon intensity,but the effect is weak,and the increase of the proportion of large and medium-sized enterprises or the decrease of the proportion of heavy industry and state-owned enterprises is conducive to reducing carbon intensity,too.The policy implication of the empirical results is that local governments should adjust the industrial structure to reduce industrial carbon intensity,encouraging enterprises to enlarge business scales,preventing excessive expansion of heavy industry,or actively developing non-state-owned economy.