我国入境旅游客源与旅游外汇收入的多尺度对比研究——EMD方法的新应用

基于2005—2010年间我国入境旅游客源和旅游外汇收入的月数据,引入处理非平稳时间序列的经验模态分解(EMD)方法,进行两个要素的多尺度分解及对比。研究结果表明:(1)入境旅游客源与旅游外汇收入具有几乎一致的波动周期,分别为3个月、半年、1年及39个月。(2)入境旅游客源并不是旅游外汇收入变化的必要条件。如果外界条件不变,入境旅游客源的变化趋势以3个月周期震荡为主,上升速度极为缓慢;而旅游外汇收入则保持迅速提升,周期性波动并非其主要变化特征。(3)比起盲目吸引入境旅游客源,更应根据区域旅游资源特点与发展基础,寻找旅游业发展中新的增长点,才更具长远意义。

Multi-scale Comparative Study on International Tourist Arrivals and Tourism Foreign Exchange Earnings:New Application of EMD Method

Empirical mode decomposition(EMD) was introduced to examine the inner fluctuation rule and mutual affection mechanism of international tourist arrivals and tourism foreign exchange earnings in China.Successive monthly data of these two factors from 2005 to 2010 were decomposed and multi-scale comparative study was carried out.Three main results were obtained:(1) International tourist arrivals and tourism foreign exchange earnings,were decomposed by four IMFs and one trend res respectively.The two factors had almost uniform average periods during fluctuation processes,i.e.,3,6,12 and 39 months.(2) International tourist arrivals is not the necessary condition of foreign exchange earnings change.International tourist arrivals will continue fluctuating with 3-month cycle,while the rapid ascend is the main feature of tourism foreign exchange earnings.(3) Compared with many blindly policies aimed to attract international tourist arrivals,it is more meaningful to search new growth point in tourism based on the regional resource characteristics and development base.