飞机人工增雨区域控制模拟试验效果评价

采用非随机化－区域控制模拟试验方案，对江西柘林水库区域（１９７９～１９８２）飞机人工增雨作业结果进行重新评价；通过与共它非随机化试验方案比较，区域控制模拟试验方案能够客观定量反映出柘林水库飞机人工增雨作业实际结果，是一咱比较理想的人工增雨效果检验方法。分析结果表明，每次飞机人工增雨作业平均增雨量１．３７ｍｍ／４ｈ，相对增雨率２４．９２（α〈０．０５）；经准确度比较，区域控制模拟试验方案产生的假效果

Effect Assessment of a Simulation Test of Airplane Rain Enhancement with Area Control

By using of a simulation test with a non randomize area control,the effect assessment of airplane rain enhancement over Zheling Reservoir of Jiangxi province from 1979 to 1982 was conducted and compared with other non randomize tests.It is shown that the area control test is an objective assessment method better than others.Mean rain enhancement of every airplane operation is 1 37mm per four hours,and the relative rate of rain enhancement is 24 92%.By comparing accuracy of every method,the false effect of area control test is 0 53%,but the falso effect of sequence test,area contrast test and historical regression test is 9 89%,-19 52% and 19 58% respectively.