大别山区茶叶气候生产潜力评估

基于大别山区35个气象观测站1971—2020年逐日气象资料、DEM数据，采用气候统计分析、逐步订正法和趋势面插值等方法，对茶叶光合生产潜力（YQ）、光温生产潜力（YT）和气候生产潜力（YW）时空变化特征、气候资源贡献率及其对气候变化的响应进行了分析。结果表明：大别山区茶叶YQ和YW呈下降趋势，降幅分别为0.58和0.05 t〖DK〗·hm-2〖DK〗·(10a)-1，YT呈增加趋势，增幅为0.36 t〖DK〗·hm-2〖DK〗·(10a)-1；空间分布上，YQ随纬度的增加而增加，YT随纬度和海拔的增加而减少，YW随纬度的增加而减少、随海拔的增加而增加；太阳辐射、温度和降水对YW的贡献率分别为26%、48%、26%，温度的促进作用与太阳辐射和降水的抑制作用相互抵消，致使YW总体呈动态平衡趋势；气候变化背景下，大别山区北部地区较南部地区YQ下降趋势更加明显，南部地区较北部地区YT增加趋势更加明显，YW在低海拔地区呈增加趋势而在高海拔地区呈下降趋势。研究结果可为大别山区茶叶产业充分利用气候资源、高效趋利避害、合理优化产业布局提供科学依据。

Assessment of Climatic Potential Productivity of Tea in Dabie Mountains

Based on the daily meteorological data of 35 meteorological observation stations during 1971-2020 in Dabie Mountains and DEM data, methods such as climatic statistical analysis, successive correction and trend surface interpolation are used, and the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the photosynthesis (Y_Q), photo thermal (Y_T) and climatic potential productivity (Y_W) of tea, the contribution rate of climatic resources and their response to climate change are analyzed. The results show that Y_Q and Y_W of tea in Dabie Mountains show a decreasing trend, the rate of decline is 0.58 and 0.05 t·hm^-2 per 10 years, Y_T show an increasing trend, the rate of increase is 0.36 t·hm^-2 per 10 years. In spatial distribution, Y_Q increases with latitude, Y_T decreases with latitude and altitude, and Y_W decreases with latitude and increases with altitude. The contribution rates of solar radiation, temperature and precipitation to Y_W are 26%, 48% and 26%, respectively. The increase in temperature is offset by the decrease in solar radiation and precipitation, resulting in a general dynamic equilibrium trend. Under the background of climate change, the decreasing trend of Y_Q in the northern part of the Dabie Mountains is more obvious than that in the southern part. The increasing trend of Y_T in the southern part is more obvious than that in the northern part. The Y_W in the low-altitude area is increasing, and that in the high-altitude area is decreasing. The results of this study can provide the scientific basis for the tea industry in Dabie Mountains to make full use of climate resources, pursue advantages and avoid disadvantages efficiently, and optimize industrial layout rationally.