北太平洋海温与华南东部过渡季节(2—3月)降水的关系

利用1951—2010年台北、台中、福州和厦门4站2—3月降水资料和北太平洋海温资料,通过合成分析、对比分析和相关分析等方法,研究了华南东部过渡季节(2—3月)降水变化的一致性和气候变化特征及其与北太平洋海温的关系。结果表明:台北、台中、福州和厦门4站过渡季节(2—3月)降水变化具有很好的一致性和明显的年代际变化特征。华南东部过渡季节(2—3月)降水与北太平洋海温存在着很好的相关关系;不同类型的降水异常年份,有着不同的海温距平分布特征,降水偏多年,表现为厄尔尼诺分布型,降水偏少年,则表现为拉尼娜分布型,且这种距平分布型在其前期9月开始出现端倪,12月发展成熟。前期12—1月赤道东太平洋关键区和西风漂流区关键区海温变化,对华南东部过渡季节(2—3月)降水具有较好的预测指示意义。

Relationship between sea surface temperature in the northern Pacific and rainfall in the east part of Southern China in February-March

Based on rainfall data collected in four stations(Taipei,Taizhong,Fuzhou and Xiamen) in Febru-ary-March and sea surface temperature(SST) data in the northern Pacific data during 1951—2010,variation of rainfall in the east of Southern China,characteristics of climate change,and relationship between SST in the northern Pacific is analyzed.It is shown that,during the transition seasons(February-March),the rainfall varies consistently among the four stations with a significant interannual variability.Close correlation is found between SST in the northern Pacific Ocean and rainfall in the east part of South China during transition seasons.The posi-tive/ negative rainfall anomaly corresponds to El Nino/La Nina event,respectively,which starts in September and reaches the maximum level in December.The sea temperature variation in the eastern equatorial Pacific and west-erly drift zone is an effective indicator for the rainfall in the easte part of South China during the transition sea-sons.