论地质灾害风险识别问题

基于多年学术研究与实地“原型观测”，提出了地质灾害风险识别或早期识别的六个因素，包括地质体边界形态（a）、成分结构（b）、初始状态（c）、激发条件（d）、环境因素（e）和成灾条件（f）及其时间变化（t），简称“六要素识别法”，可表示为R=f（a，b，c，d，e，f；t）。这些因素的变化决定着致灾体与承灾体遭遇的概率，从而为地质灾害风险评价指明方向。通过实际案例论证了典型因素变化导致的地质灾害，在思想上突破了以往过度关注于从已发生灾害事件推断未来风险的局限，推动从地质环境因素变化孕育地质灾害风险的研判，更有针对性地服务于防灾减灾管理决策。

Research on the risk recognition of geological disasters

Based on years of scientific research and in situ “prototype measurement” of geological disasters, author proposed six factors and their variations with time for risk identification or early recognition of geological disasters. The factors include: topographic forms (a), components and structures (b), initial states (c), induced factors (d), environmental conditions (e) and harmful objects (f) with its time (t). This method can be termed as “risk identification by six factors”, representing as R=f（a，b，c，d，e，f；t）. The variations of six factors determine the probability of encounters between geological hazards and human beings. To prove that, geological disasters induced by changing of typical factors over time were discussed. Compared with assessments over-focused on occurred hazard events, this dynamic thinking can provide a better understanding on time-dependent risk assessments and risk managements for disasters reduction.