对自然正交函数稳定性条件的讨论

对亚洲500毫巴候平均环流进行了天气统计学分析以后,本文进一步利用更新了的资料进行计算分析。指出,原始资料经过中心化处理后,在所对应的时空尺度上,自然正交函数是稳定的。在这一分析基础上,进一步论证了如果所分析的随机过程是平稳的,则其对应的自然正交函数是稳定的。从而为以自然正交分解方法为基础的预报问题提供了依据,并可以大大节省计算工作量。 本文还对气象上使用自然正交分解方法的若干问题进行了讨论,为有效地使用自然正交分解方法提出了一些有意义的看法。

ON THE STABILITY OF EMPIRICAL ORTHOGONAL FUNCTION (EOF)

After a synoptical and statistical analysis^[1] of the 5-day's mean circulation of the 500mb surface in the area of Asia for the period of 1964-1973, the results of computation and analysis of the renewal data for the period of 1969-1978 years are given in this artical. It is pointed out that EOF is an invariant, if the original data are processed by the method of centralization fox filtering the seasonal variations. It is shown that the general condition for stability of EOF is the stability of the random process, which will be studied. Therefor, these results may give a physical fundation for the method of Long-range weather forecasting by using the technique of EOF. Some problems for the application of EOF in meteorology are also discussed in this paper. Some interesting viewpoints about the effective application of EOF are obtained.