| 塔城盆地暴雪预报方法和白灾的防御对策 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐 秀,李建华,王金辉,高 星,袁秀丽.塔城盆地暴雪预报方法和白灾的防御对策[J].新疆气象,2009,3(1):41-45. |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐 秀 李建华 王金辉 高 星 袁秀丽 |
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| 作者单位： | 唐秀,李建华,王金辉,高星,TANG Xiu,LI Jian-hua,WANG Jin-hui,GAO Xing(克州气象局,新疆阿图什,845350);袁秀丽,YUAN Xiu-li(塔城地区气象局,新疆塔城,834700)
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| 摘 要： | 从1970--1997年28a的资料中筛选出30个个例为对象，对其从高、中、低、地面4个层次形势场进行对比和分类，对产生暴雪的物理机制进行诊断分析，采用统计预报中的多因子综合相关预报方法筛选预报因子，用集合预报方法集成预报结果。据此提出畜牧业生产防御暴雪的对策。
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雪 集合预报 白灾 防御对策 |
Forecast Method of Heavy Snow and Defensive Countermeasures to Snow Disaster in Tacheng Basin |
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| TANG Xiu,LI Jian-hu,Wang Jin-hui,Gao Xing and Yuan Xiu.Forecast Method of Heavy Snow and Defensive Countermeasures to Snow Disaster in Tacheng Basin[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology,2009,3(1):41-45. |
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| Authors: | TANG Xiu LI Jian-hu Wang Jin-hui Gao Xing and Yuan Xiu |
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| Institution: | Kezhou Meteorological Bureau, Atushi 845350, China;Kezhou Meteorological Bureau, Atushi 845351, China;Kezhou Meteorological Bureau, Atushi 845352, China;Kezhou Meteorological Bureau, Atushi 845353, China;Tacheng Meteorological Bureau, Tacheng 834700, China |
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| Abstract: | Thirty cases of heavy snow selected from the observation data during 1970-1997 in Tacheng basin were compared and classified by situation fields of the high, middle, low and surface level. The physical mechanisms of the heavy snow were analyzed and diagnosed. Synthesis correlation of multiple factors in statistics forecast is used to select the forecast factors, and forecast results were gathered by ensemble forecasting. Hereby, the defensive countermeasures of snow disaster were improved for animal husbandry production. |
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| Keywords: | heavy snow ensemble forecasting snow disaster defensive countermeasure |
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