Sensitivity of the Humboldt Current system to global warming: a downscaling experiment of the IPSL-CM4 model |
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Authors: | Vincent Echevin Katerina Goubanova Ali Belmadani Boris Dewitte |
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Affiliation: | 1. LOCEAN, Paris, France 2. LEGOS, Toulouse, France 3. IMARPE, IGP, LEGOS, Lima, Peru 4. IPRC, International Pacific Research Center, SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii
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Abstract: | The impact of climate warming on the seasonal variability of the Humboldt Current system ocean dynamics is investigated. The IPSL-CM4 large scale ocean circulation resulting from two contrasted climate scenarios, the so-called Preindustrial and quadrupling CO2, are downscaled using an eddy-resolving regional ocean circulation model. The intense surface heating by the atmosphere in the quadrupling CO2 scenario leads to a strong increase of the surface density stratification, a thinner coastal jet, an enhanced Peru–Chile undercurrent, and an intensification of nearshore turbulence. Upwelling rates respond quasi-linearly to the change in wind stress associated with anthropogenic forcing, and show a moderate decrease in summer off Peru and a strong increase off Chile. Results from sensitivity experiments show that a 50% wind stress increase does not compensate for the surface warming resulting from heat flux forcing and that the associated mesoscale turbulence increase is a robust feature. |
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