Barrier destruction and Lagrangian predictability at depth in a meandering jet

Numerical simulations of a jet with large amplitude meanders are used to explore chaotic advection processes and underlying geometry changes as functions of the ambient potential vorticity gradient β. Variations in β in the 2D model qualitatively simulate changes in depth in 3D, surface-intensified jets such as the Gulf Stream. As β is reduced, corresponding to motion on increasingly deep isopycnal surfaces, a number of geometrical transitions take place in the flanges and across the core of the jet. The most important is a joining (or separatrix reconnection) of heteroclinic cat’s eyes structures lying to the north and south of the jet core. The jet core acts as a barrier to transport, but this barrier is breached when the cat’s eyes merge. The subsequent chaotic transport across the jet is demonstrated by calculations of effective invariant manifolds (EIMs) originating in hyperbolic regions to the north and south of the core. Destruction of the central barrier occurs as β is lowered through a narrow window W about β=0 and is marked by transitions form a meandering jet through a vortex street with no central meandering flow to a vortex street with a retrograde meander. Such small values of β are deemed reasonable in view of measurements of low potential vorticity gradients in the deep Gulf Stream. The strength of the central barrier for β outside W is tested by varying β about a mean value β₀ and detecting the minimum amplitude of fluctuation necessary for destruction of the barrier. It is found that the barrier is stronger for β₀>0, at least by this measure. A striking difference is that, for β<0, some disturbances may destroy the barrier without oscillating across W; whereas for β>0, destruction of the barrier may only occur when β passes through W. Changes in underlying geometry also occur in the flanges of the jet and these changes alter the locations in which fluid is preferentially stirred and mixed. Float trajectories can be regular or irregular depending upon where the instrument is launched and this is demonstrated by plotting trajectories from inside and outside regions of chaotic advection.