A technique for verification of weather forecast and climate simulation with fuzzy sets

In the light of the idea of fuzzy neartude, a fuzzy procedure of verifying weather forecast and climate simulation is demonstrated. Several verification indices used in weather forecast, such as hit ratio, Heidke score, Brier score, correlation coefficient and information entropy score, are unified under fuzzy neartude and a new verification index is proposed on the basis of Hamming distance neartude. Further,D ²-statistics used in climate simulation verification is derived from a weighted Euclidean distance neartude. The “January climate” generated by general circulation model (GCM) is also numerically verified. The paper was finished by author as a research fellow of the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation in the Meteorological Institute of Hamburg University in the Federal Republic of Germany.