| Abstract: | A western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction scheme (WIPS) is developed based on TC samples from 1996
to 2002 using the stepwise regression technique, with the western North Pacific divided into three sub-regions: the region
near the coast of East China (ECR), the South China Sea region (SCR), and the far oceanic region (FOR). Only the TCs with
maximum sustained surface wind speed greater than 17.2 m s−1 are used in the scheme. Potential predictors include the climatology and persistence factors, synoptic environmental conditions,
potential intensity of a TC and proximity of a TC to land. Variances explained by the selected predictors suggest that the
potential intensity of a TC and the proximity of a TC to land are significant in almost all the forecast equations. Other
important predictors include vertical wind shear in ECR, 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly at the TC center, zonal component
of TC translation speed in SCR, intensity change of TC 12 or 24 h prior to initial time, and the longitude of TC center in
FOR. |
