川滇地区地震动预测模型及其对2021年漾濞6.4级地震的适用性

随着川滇地区强震记录的不断增加,为了建立更符合该区域地震动特征的预测模型,文中基于该区域现有的地震动数据,通过随机效应回归模型建立适用于川滇地区的地震动预测模型;2021年5月21日,云南省大理州漾濞县发生6.4级地震,为了分析文中预测模型对漾濞地震的适用性,首先根据预测模型的适用范围选取合适的漾濞地震数据,计算真实记...

Ground motion prediction model in Sichuan-Yunnan region and its applicability to the 2021 Ms 6.4 Yangbi earthquake

With the increase of strong ground motions records in Sichuan-Yunnan region,in order to establish a prediction model more in line with the characteristics of ground motion in this region,based on the existing ground mo‐tion data in this region,this paper established a prediction model of ground motion suitable for Sichuan-Yunnan region by stochastic effect regression model;on May 21,2021,a 6.4-magnitude earthquake occurred in Yangbi County,Dali Prefecture,Yunnan Province,in order to analyze the applicability of the prediction model to the Yangbi earthquake,the appropriate Yangbi earthquake records is selected according to the applicable range of the prediction model firstly,the residual between the actual records'response spectrum and the predicted value of the model is calculated,the difference of response spectrum characteristic between the Yangbi earthquake and other earthquakes of the same magnitude in Sichuan-Yunnan region is studied by analyzing the residual.By comparative analysis,the prediction model in this paper is different with the Sichuan-Yunnan region's attenuation relationship by Wang Yushi et al in the short period,and slightly higher than the model of Wang Yushi in the medium and long period,besides,this model can predict the Yangbi earthquake well,but the PGA of Yangbi earthquake in far field attenuates rapidly and the ground motion intensity of medium and long period is relatively high.