雷达特征参数在人工增雨(雪)决策中的应用

对2016-2018年大连市86次降水过程(≥5mm)天气资料统计和分析,得到了冬季降水形势为高空槽、东北冷涡和平直西风气流场,春夏秋季为高空槽、东北冷涡、副高西南气流、西北气流及江淮气旋形势场,且降水多为稳定层结(夏季副高、冷涡等除外)；对SA新一代多普勒雷达资料PUP处理和分析,获得了降水回波特征及特征参数值,以及主要降水云系(层云、积层混合云和对流云)；根据雷达回波强度、顶高和垂直积分液态水含量等特征参数及变化,结合冷云催化原理等综合分析,研究建立了基于SA多普勒雷达的人工增雨(雪)作业预警、决策判别指标体系。利用2019年41次降水过程雷达资料进行指标验证分析,得到了87% 以上确率；对4月13日一次实例进行火箭增雨指挥系统业务运行及雷达反演决策判别等综合分析,取得了较好预期效果。

Application of Radar Characteristic Parametersin Ground Artifical Rainfall(Snow) Enhancement

This paper examines synoptic patterns associated with 86 rainfall cases (rainfall amount greater than or equal to 5 mm) during 2016 and 2018. The results indicate main synoptic patterns include high-level trough, Northeast cold vortex, zonal westerlies in autumn and winter, while in spring and summer times the patterns include high-level trough, Northeast China Cold Vortex, southwest and northwest flows of subtropical high and Changjiang-Huaihe cyclone. In addition, stable layers are presented during rainfall (except for subtropical high, cold vortex and Changjiang-Huaihe cyclone during summers). By processing radar data via PUP, radar echo patterns and main parameter features indicate rain cloud patterns include stratiform, convective and stratiform-convective mixed clouds. According to characteristic parameters such as reflectivity, vertically integrated liquid water content and so on, combined with cold cloud catalytic principle and numerical simulation, new generation radar-based artificial rainfall enhancement operation and warning system is developed. By re-analyzing radar archive of 41 rainfall cases in 2019, the accuracy rate shows over 87%. Especially for case on April 13 2019, combined with in-cloud liquid water,ground rainfall amount and PM2.5 analysis, comprehensive decision-making method of cold-cloud rainfall enhancement potential in air pollution condition is discussed. This work effectively develop cloud water and protect ecological environment and so on.