海运连通性与中国国际贸易增长——基于联合国LSBCI数据的分析

基于联合国班轮航运双边连通性指数(LSBCI)数据,刻画了2006—2020年中国海运连通性的特征,采用拟泊松极大似然估计(PPML)考察了海运连通性对中国国际贸易的影响及作用机制。结果表明:2006—2019年中国海运连通性水平稳步提升,2020年出现骤降,整体存在明显的空间差异性特点。海运连通性具有显著贸易增长效应,在替换因变量和考虑滞后影响等稳健性检验后仍成立。海运连通性通过降低双边贸易成本和增强双边市场引力两个渠道来实现中国国际贸易增长。海运连通性的贸易增长效应在“一带一路”沿线内外、不同时段和不同收入水平等方面具有显著的异质性特征。

Shipping Connectivity and China's International Trade Growth:Based on the Analysis of UN LSBCI Data

Based on the LSBCI data of United Nations,this paper described the facts of China’s shipping connectivity from 2006 to 2020,and applied the Pseudo Poisson-maximum likelihood estimation to empirically researched the effect and its mechanism of shipping connectivity on China’s international trade.The result shows that:Firstly,the level of China’s shipping connectivity increase steadily from 2006 to 2019,but decrease sharply in 2020,and there are still obvious spatial differences on the whole.Secondly,shipping connectivity is positive and significant impact on trade growth,which is still stands after the robustness test of adjusting trade volume by economic scale and considering the lag effect.Thirdly,shipping connectivity can achieve the growth of China’s international trade by reducing the cost of bilateral trade and enhancing the gravitation of bilateral market.Fourthly,the trade growth effect of shipping connectivity exist obviously heterogeneity characteristics in the“Belt&Road”route,with different sample periods and different income levels.