Prototyping an experimental early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Indonesia using satellite remote sensing and geospatial datasets |
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Authors: | Zonghu Liao Yang Hong Jun Wang Hiroshi Fukuoka Kyoji Sassa Dwikorita Karnawati and Faisal Fathani |
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Institution: | (1) School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Sciences, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, USA;(2) Kyoto University Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan;(3) International Consortium on Landslides, Kyoto, Japan;(4) University of Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia;(5) Center for Natural Hazard and Disaster Research, National Weather Center, Suite 3630, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Norman, OK 73072, USA;(6) Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy Sciences, Beijing, China; |
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Abstract: | An early warning system has been developed to predict rainfall-induced shallow landslides over Java Island, Indonesia. The
prototyped early warning system integrates three major components: (1) a susceptibility mapping and hotspot identification
component based on a land surface geospatial database (topographical information, maps of soil properties, and local landslide
inventory, etc.); (2) a satellite-based precipitation monitoring system () and a precipitation forecasting model (i.e., Weather Research Forecast); and (3) a physically based, rainfall-induced landslide
prediction model SLIDE. The system utilizes the modified physical model to calculate a factor of safety that accounts for
the contribution of rainfall infiltration and partial saturation to the shear strength of the soil in topographically complex
terrains. In use, the land-surface “where” information will be integrated with the “when” rainfall triggers by the landslide
prediction model to predict potential slope failures as a function of time and location. In this system, geomorphologic data
are primarily based on 30-m Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data, digital elevation
model (DEM), and 1-km soil maps. Precipitation forcing comes from both satellite-based, real-time National Aeronautics and
Space Administration (NASA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model forecasts.
The system’s prediction performance has been evaluated using a local landslide inventory, and results show that the system
successfully predicted landslides in correspondence to the time of occurrence of the real landslide events. Integration of
spatially distributed remote sensing precipitation products and in-situ datasets in this prototype system enables us to further
develop a regional, early warning tool in the future for predicting rainfall-induced landslides in Indonesia. |
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