华北地区气候暖干化的农业适应性对策研究

通过对华北地区1951-2000年的气温和降水的统计资料进行分析,并作出年平均气温距平变化图和平均降水变化图,得出华北地区50多年来气候呈现暖干化趋势,气温明显升高,冬季表现最为明显,降水明显减少,夏季表现最为明显。接着采用降水量减去同时期蒸发力的方法,从水分平衡的角度分析了气候暖干化对地表水资源的影响,得出近50年来,华北地区年及季的水分亏缺量总体呈增加趋势,春季亏缺尤为严重,加剧了对农业生产的不利影响。然后通过大量农业实验数据,分析了气候暖干化对农作物产量、品质、病虫害及化肥农药的使用的影响,得出气候暖干化对农业生产的影响害处远大于利处。在此基础上分析得出华北地区农业应对气候暖干化的主要问题是水问题,然后通过具体实例和对实验数据的分析,提出以下具体建议与适应性对策:积极推广和普及农业节水技术;推广集水保水技术;因水制宜调整农作物类型,发展优势作物;合理调整种植结构,优化作物布局;加强宣传教育,增强农民气候适应意识。

Study on agricultural adaptation to warming and drying climate in North China

Through analyzing the statistical materials of the temperature and precipitation in North China in more than 50 years,we drew the picture of departure change of yearly average temperature and the picture of departure change of average precipitation,and concluded that the climate in North China took on the trend of warmer and dryer in more than 50 years.The temperature had been elevating obviously,especially in winter.The precipitation had been decreasing obviously,especially in summer.Then we adopted the metheds that the precipitation subtracts the evaporativity in the same period and water balance,analyzed the influence that the warming and drying climate exerted on the water resource in earth surface,and concluded that in recent 50 years in North China the water wane in year and season had taken generally on the increasing trend,especially in spring,which had pricked up the bad influence on agriculture.And then through a lot of experimental data on agriculture,we analyzed the influence that the warming and drying climate exerted on the crop's output and quality,plant diseases and insect pests,and the use of chemical fertilizer and pesticide,and concluded that the disadvantage of the warming and drying climate bringed to the agriculture was much greater than the advantage of that.On that base we concluded that in North China the problem that agriculture adapted the warming and drying climate is the water problem,and through detailed examples and analyzing the experimental data,put up the follow suggestions and measures: actively popularize the saving water techniques;popularize the collecting and preserving water techniques;adjust crop types to local water condition and develop advantaged crops;reasonably adjust agricultural texture and optimize agricultural distribution;strengthen advertising and educating and reinforce farmers' consciousness of adjusting the climate change.