| Evolution of cumulative Coulomb failure stress in northeastern Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Plateau and its effect on large earthquake occurrence |
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| 引用本文： | 万永革 沈正康 曾跃华 盛书中. Evolution of cumulative Coulomb failure stress in northeastern Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Plateau and its effect on large earthquake occurrence[J]. 地震学报(英文版), 2007, 20(2): 117-132. DOI: 10.1007/s11589-007-0117-9 |
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| 作者姓名： | 万永革 沈正康 曾跃华 盛书中 |
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| 作者单位： | State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics Institute of Geology，China Earthquake Administration，State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics，Institute of Geology，China Earthquake Administration，U.S.Geology Survey，Golden CO 80401，USA，Institute of Geophysics，China Earthquake Administration，Beijing100029，China Institute of Disaster Prevention of Science and Technology，Sanhe 065201，China，Beijing100029，China Department of Earth and Space Sciences，University of California，Los Angeles CA 90095-1567，USA，Beijing 100081，China |
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| 基金项目： | National Natural Science Foundation of China(40374012 and 40334042)，State Key Fundamental Research De-velopment Plan Project(2001CB711005) |
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| 摘 要： | We simulate accumulative Coulomb failure stress change in a layered Maxwell viscoelastic media in the north-eastern Qinghai-Xizang(Tibetan)Plateau since 1920.Lithospheric stress/strain evolution is assumed to be drivenby dislocations of large earthquakes(M≥7.0)and secular tectonic loading.The earthquake rupture parameters suchas the fault rupture length,width,and slip are either adopted from field investigations or estimated from their sta-tistic relationships with the earthquake magnitudes and seismic moments.Our study shows that among 20 largeearthquakes(M≥7.0)investigated,17 occurred in areas where the Coulomb failure stress change is positive,with atriggering rate of 85%.This study provides essential data for the intermediate to long-term likelihood estimation oflarge earthquakes in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.
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| 关 键 词： | 青藏高原东北部 累积库仑断裂应力 强震发生 地震触发 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-9116（2007）02-0117-16 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-06-01 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-28 |
Evolution of cumulative Coulomb failure stress in northeastern Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau and its effect on large earthquake occurrence |
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| Wan Yong-ge , Shen Zheng-kang , Zeng Yue-hua and Sheng Shu-zhong. Evolution of cumulative Coulomb failure stress in northeastern Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau and its effect on large earthquake occurrence[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition), 2007, 20(2): 117-132. DOI: 10.1007/s11589-007-0117-9 |
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| Authors: | Wan Yong-ge Shen Zheng-kang Zeng Yue-hua Sheng Shu-zhong |
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| Affiliation: | (1) State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, 100029, China;(2) Institute of Disaster Prevention of Science and Technology, Sanhe, 065201, China;(3) Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567, USA;(4) U. S. Geology Survey, Golden, CO 80401, USA;(5) Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, 10008, China |
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| Abstract: | We simulate accumulative Coulomb failure stress change in a layered Maxwell viscoelastic media in the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau since 1920. Lithospheric stress/strain evolution is assumed to be driven by dislocations of large earthquakes (M≥7.0) and secular tectonic loading. The earthquake rupture parameters such as the fault rupture length, width, and slip are either adopted from field investigations or estimated from their statistic relationships with the earthquake magnitudes and seismic moments. Our study shows that among 20 large earthquakes (M≥7.0) investigated, 17 occurred in areas where the Coulomb failure stress change is positive, with a triggering rate of 85%. This study provides essential data for the intermediate to long-term likelihood estimation of large earthquakes in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Foundation item: National Natural Science Foundation of China (40374012 and 40334042) and State Key Fundamental Research Development Plan Project (2001CB711005). |
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| Keywords: | earthquake triggering northeastern Tibetan Plateau cumulative Coulomb stress change |
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