我国飞机试飞气象保障服务的发展现状与展望

随着我国航空工业的发展,特别是国产民机型号研制的不断突破,飞机试飞气象保障服务与技术研究不断受到各界的重视。飞机试飞场景特殊性、高风险性、复杂性的特点,对气象服务提出了全新的要求。本文阐述了试飞气象保障服务的主要内容,结合在保障型号取证试飞过程中的里程碑事件和重点科目,分析了当前试飞气象保障服务的发展现状,并考虑到未来随着飞机制造和试飞事业进一步发展的需求,以飞机结冰和颠簸为例,讨论了下一阶段试飞气象保障技术研究的重点方向,希望能为将来更好地保障国产大飞机事业发展提供气象参考意见。

Progress and prospect of meteorological service for aircraft flight test in China

With the advancement of China''s aviation industry,particularly through the continuous breakthroughs in the development of domestic civilian aircraft models,meteorological services and technical research for aircraft flight tests have garnered increasing attention from various sectors.Due to the unique,high-risk,and complex nature of flight test scenarios,new demands have been placed on meteorological services.Compared to typical civil aviation meteorological service settings,flight tests require more stringent weather conditions,have different thresholds for high impact weather events,and unlike commercial aviation,which avoids hazardous weather,flight tests need to seek out specific weather conditions.Consequently,there is a higher demand for precise forecasts of high impact weather,particularly with a lower tolerance for false alarms.Flight test meteorological services encompass seamless forecasting and prediction,climate condition analysis,observational plan design for flight test campaign,and interpretation of meteorological standards for airworthiness,etc.This article analyzes the current state of meteorological services for flight tests in China,focusing on milestone events during type certification flight tests and key subjects such as aircraft icing.It is found that China possesses relatively abundant flight test climatic resources,which is sufficient to guarantee the relevant aircraft models to complete all the special weather flight tests in domestic environment for type certification.Utilizing long-term,multi-source meteorological observation data and effective diagnostic algorithms can enhance flight test scheduling more rational and more scientific,thereby improving flight test efficiency.More accurate aircraft icing potential forecasting methods,combined with analyses of aircraft icing meteorological characteristics based on multi-source observations,have enabled efficient organization and accomplishment of domestic aircraft type icing flight tests,also providing preliminary insights into the microphysical characteristics of super-cooled clouds in China where aircraft icing occurs.However,the phenomenon of “over-prediction” in aircraft turbulence index forecasting algorithms still presents challenges in accurately capturing turbulence during flight tests.Considering future needs with further advancements in aircraft manufacturing and flight test in China,in-depth research in meteorological support technologies for flight test,like aircraft icing and turbulence,remains necessary,such as studying different icing environments and their transformation mechanisms and integrating artificial intelligence with physical methods to improve turbulence forecasting accuracy.