| EXPERIMENTS OF ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF TYPHOON TRACK USING
BDA PERTURBING METHOD |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄燕燕 万齐林 袁金南 丁伟钰 |
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| 作者单位： | Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA;Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA;Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA;Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA |
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| 基金项目： | “The System of Ensemble Forecasting Models for Tropical Cyclones in the South China Sea”,
a project of the Scientific and Technological Plans for Guangdong Province(2003C32603) |
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| 摘 要： | A new method, BDA perturbing, is used in ensemble forecasting of typhoon track. This method is
based on the Bogus Data Assimilation scheme. It perturbs the initial position and intensity of typhoons and gets a
series of bogus vortex. Then each bogus vortex is used in data assimilation to obtain initial conditions. Ensemble
forecast members are constructed by conducting simulation with these initial conditions. Some cases of typhoon
are chosen to test the validity of this new method and the results show that: using the BDA perturbing method to
perturb initial position and intensity of typhoon for track forecast can improve accuracy, compared with the direct
use of the BDA assimilation scheme. And it is concluded that a perturbing amplitude of intensity of 5 hPa is
probably more appropriate than 10 hPa if the BDA perturbing method is used in combination with initial
position perturbation.
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| 关 键 词： | ensemble forecast typhoon track BDA perturbing method typhoon numerical forecast |
EXPERIMENTS OF ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF TYPHOON TRACK USING
BDA PERTURBING METHOD |
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| HUANG Yan-yan,WAN Qi-lin,YUAN Jin-nan and DING Wei-yu.EXPERIMENTS OF ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF TYPHOON TRACK USING
BDA PERTURBING METHOD[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2006,12(2):159-164. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Yan-yan WAN Qi-lin YUAN Jin-nan and DING Wei-yu |
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| Institution: | Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA, Guangzhou 510080 China |
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| Abstract: | A new method, BDA perturbing, is used in ensemble forecasting of typhoon track. This method is
based on the Bogus Data Assimilation scheme. It perturbs the initial position and intensity of typhoons and gets a
series of bogus vortex. Then each bogus vortex is used in data assimilation to obtain initial conditions. Ensemble
forecast members are constructed by conducting simulation with these initial conditions. Some cases of typhoon
are chosen to test the validity of this new method and the results show that: using the BDA perturbing method to
perturb initial position and intensity of typhoon for track forecast can improve accuracy, compared with the direct
use of the BDA assimilation scheme. And it is concluded that a perturbing amplitude of intensity of 5 hPa is
probably more appropriate than 10 hPa if the BDA perturbing method is used in combination with initial
position perturbation. |
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| Keywords: | ensemble forecast typhoon track BDA perturbing method typhoon numerical forecast |
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