城市模型研究的发展趋势及展望

从内容、空间尺度、时间维、综合程度、建模方式、复杂程度和数学方法等方面对目前的城市模型进行了系统的分类。论述了城市模型研究的发展趋势：模型研究内容日益丰富和多元化；从静态模拟到动态模拟发展；从子系统模拟向综合系统模拟发展；遥感和GIS的应用以及与城市模型的集成。对城市模型研究的未来发展进行了展望，认为未来的城市模型开发应基于综合方法的思想，注重加强城市基本理论和多学科交叉研究，强调城市模拟的动态性和综合性。充分借助遥感与GIS等技术手段进行研究。

The Development Tendency and Prospects for Urban Model

This paper presents a systematic classification based on contents,spatial scale,integrated extent,development approach,complex degree and mathematical methods of urban models.It analyzes and discusses the development tendency of urban model: to extensive and multiple contents,from static urban modeling to dynamic urban modeling,from sub-system urban modeling to integrated system urban modeling and application and integration of new techniques such as Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems to urban model.The future development tendency and research direction is pointed out at last.It suggests future urban model efforts should be on the basis of the integration principles,aimed at research on basic urban theories and multidisciplinary intersection,attached importance to urban dynamic and interaction,made wide use of Remote Sensing and GIS techniques.