清代耕地数据恢复重建方法与实证研究

本文尝试构建一套适用于清代耕地数据的修正校验体系,以清代官方册载田亩数据为基础,采用人口基数和垦殖趋势进行检验和订正,通过替换、引用、衔接对比等方法进行数据修正,重建清代耕地数据,以期为后续相关研究提供参考.在建立理论分析框架的基础上,本文以历史资料相对丰富的山东省为例,对清代山东省的耕地数据进行修正与校验,结果表明：① 清代山东省的册载田亩数据不实情况普遍,经要素法修正的数据虽然通过了人口检验,但未能通过垦殖趋势校验,有必要进行进一步的订正和校准;② 在修正和校验过程中应综合考虑不同省份间垦殖政策、种植制度、自然条件等的差异,从修正系数到校验重点进行因时因地调整;③ 清前期山东省耕地增长主要受限于劳动力供给,耕地面积接近于劳动力供给线,随着人口的增长,耕地面积逐渐趋向于温饱线.同治以后,耕地面积开始低于温饱线,需要依靠粮食输入才能满足人口需求,山东省由粮食输出省变为粮食输入省.

Research on cropland data recovery and reconstruction in the Qing Dynasty: Method and case study

The global environment has changed significantly since the beginning of the human civilization, especially after the industrial resolution when the world population explosion started. Historical land-use and land-cover changes caused by human activities during the last three centuries have been regarded as one of the five key frame issues in the LUCC project. As a country of 5000 years of history, China has its population boom ever since the prime Qing Dynasty (around AD1700), and becomes an area of active land-use and land-cover changes. Currently, there are two global historical land use datasets, generally referred as the "RF datasets" and "HYDE database". However, at the national level, these global datasets have coarse resolutions and inevitable errors. International and domestic scholars tried to reconstruct China's historical land-use and land-cover quantitatively and spatially. But the remarkable differences among their results bring a lot of difficulty to relevant researchers. Considering various factors that influenced the cropland tax records, this study developed a revised system to transfer historical records into real cropland area. Then, to inspect and calibrate these revised cropland area, we built an examination and calibration system from the aspects of population limitation and reclamation trends. Finally, as a case study, we applied the system to Shandong province, reconstructed its cropland data in the Qing Dynasty and obtained three main results. (1) Historical land tax records were not equal to the real cropland area. Despite the fact that the data revised by the first system can pass the population test, it cannot pass the reclamation trends test. (2) To calibrate them through reclamation trends, the revised system should consider the differences in reclamation policy, cropping system and natural conditions among various areas, and build a provincial factor revision form according to its historical situation. (3) In the early period of the Qing Dynasty, the key factor that limited Shandong's cropland growth was labor supply, so the cropland area approached to the labor supply line. As the population grew, cropland area went towards grain demand line. At the end of Qing Dynasty, the cropland yield of Shandong could not meet its requirement. Thus, Shandong turned into a grain importing place in the mid-19th century.