FUTURES:一种新型区域城市增长模型

如何更好地进行城市发展模拟是发展中国家快速城市化过程中面临的一个科学问题。传统研究往往基于单体或组合模型,不能为决策方案提供直接支持。本文介绍了国外一个新的城市发展模型FUTURES(FUTure Ur-ban-Regional Environment Simulation)。该模型不仅考虑了城市发展区动态适宜性梯度计算、人均土地消耗的趋势分析以及基于空间位置的斑块变化可视化模拟,而且注重模块间的动态交互反馈过程,形成了独有的深度耦合机制,模型结构紧密又不失灵活性。基于高性能计算环境支持,该模型已经在美国北卡罗来纳州的多个区域进行实验并取得成功。本文主要介绍该模型设计思想、模型组成、关键建模方法,并总结了模型的主要优势,以期为我国城市发展模拟研究提供借鉴。

FUTURES: A new regional urban growth simulation model

It is a critical scientific challenge to better simulate urban growth, especially for the regions undergoing rapid urbanization in developing countries. Conventional methods based on single or integrated models, however, can not provide direct support for decision-making. This paper introduces a new urban growth simulation model--FUTURES(FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation). The model was developed by UNC Charlotte Center for Applied GIScience (CAGIS). FUTURES not only considers the gradient calculation of dynamic suitability for urban growth, analysis of the trend of per capita land consumption, and visual simulation of patch changes based on spatial locations, but also focuses on the feedback process of dynamic interactions between modules, thus forms a unique insightful coupling mechanism, and model structure is compact and flexible. A number of experiments have been executed in a high performance computing environment for several study areas of North Carolina, USA. This paper mainly describes the model design, model composition, and key modeling methods, and summarizes the characteristics and advantages of this model. This review provides a reference for urban growth simulation research in China, which will be meaningful and helpful for promoting related research from another point of view.