从中国过去2000年温度变化看20世纪增暖

以重建的过去2000年中国东部地区冬半年温度距平序列为基础资料，从温度程度，冷暖变化速度和历史相似型3个方面，对20世纪增暖在过去2000年中的位置予以了详细分析。结果发现：虽然20世纪暖期的温度程度非常明显。但至目前为止，其温度程度和波动幅度均没有超过过去2000年曾经出现过的最高水平，20世纪增暖实质上是气候从寒冷阶段（小冰期）向温度阶段转变的快速升温过程，速率虽非常大（1.1℃/100年），但这一升温过程与过去2000年中其它气候由寒冷阶段向温暖阶段转变的过程相似，并不是唯一的。其中从百年际波动看，20世纪暖期的温度距平不但低于世纪暖期后期温暖时段（1200′s～1310′s），也低于隋唐暖期（570′s～770′s）及中世纪暖期前期的温暖时段（930′s～1100′s），从30年际变化30年相当；从年代际变化看，20世纪最暖年代的温度距平与中世纪暖期前期的最暖年代极为接近，另外，从中国过去2000年的冷暖阶段变化过程看，20世纪暖期的最可能相似型为隋唐暖期（570′s～770′sAD），而不是中世纪暖期，同时可能是由于受到195′s以后因人类活动导致的温室效应作用日益增大的影响，1980′s以后的升温速率明显加快。

Seeing the 20th Century Warming from Temperature Changes of Winter-Half-Year in Eastern China for the Last 2000 Years

Based on the temperature changes series of Winter-Half-Year in eastern China for the last 2000 years, the situation of the 20th century warming within a context of the past 2000 years is analyzed from the three aspects of changing amplitude, rate, and historical analogue. The results are summarized as follows: (1) Although it has been critically warm, the temperature of the 20th century in eastern China is still within the threshold of the variability of the last 2000 years. Substantially the 20th century warming is prominent and rapid from the cool epoch (i.e., the Little Ice Age) with a high rate of 1.1 oC/100a. (2) On a century scale, the temperature anomaly of the 20th century is lower than that of the 1200s-1310s, 570s-770s, and 930s-1100s, which are the late warm stage of Mediaeval Warm Period (MWP), the Sui and Tang dynasties warm period, and the early warm stage of MWP, respectively. (3) Analysis suggests that the most possible analogue type of the 20th century warming is that of the Sui and Tang dynasties warm period (570s-770s) instead of that of MWP. Additionally, the temperature of the 20th century has been rising dramatically since the 1980s, which is possibly influenced by the increasing green-house-effect induced by human activities.