Short-term prediction and a new method of classification of Pc 1 pulsation occurrences

Because of their known tendency to occur in the interval 2–7 days after the start of a geomagnetic storm, Pc 1 pulsations (0.2–5 Hz) are particularly well suited for a method of occurrence prediction based on the comparison of running means of a geomagnetic activity index. By comparing the running mean of a short interval (～ 2 days) of activity data with the mean of a longer interval (～ 5 days), it is possible to isolate the intervals of declining activity that contain a large proportion (if 66%) of Pc 1 pulsation occurrences. Assuming the real time availability of a daily activity index, predictions can be made for 3–10 days ahead of the probability of Pc 1 occurrences. The method of prediction generalizes the previous observations on the relation between Pc 1 pulsations and geomagnetic storms, and one of its important features is its ability to divide Pc 1 pulsation occurrences into a unified system of categories. It is probable that this system can be exploited to provide new information about the pulsations.