宁波市地下水位动态与地面沉降预测分析

为了准确预测分析宁波市地下水位动态与地面沉降的发展趋势,建立了宁波市第四纪松散沉积层孔隙地下水流三维数值模拟模型和地面沉降与地下水位多元线性回归模型,预测了2009年底到2020年底的逐月地下水位动态和逐年地面沉降量的变化特征.结果表明,从2013年起,除山区沟谷孔隙潜水地下水位降落漏斗逐渐扩大外,其余孔隙水的地下水流场基本趋于稳定,地下水位年际变化很小,年地面沉降量也逐渐变小,由2012年的5.62 mm/a逐渐下降到2020年的5.54 mm/a,由地下水位下降引起的地面沉降基本得到控制.

A predictive analysis of groundwater regime and land subsidence in Ningbo City

In order to accurately predict and analyze groundwater regime and land subsidence develop ment trend in Ningbo, a three-dimensional numerical simulation model of pore groundwater flows in Quaternary loose sediments and a multiple linear regression model of land subsidence and groundwater level were established. Each month groundwater level dynamic change and each year land subsidence quantity change features from the end of 2009 to the end of 2020 were predicted. It shows that except the unconfined pore groundwater cones of depressions in the mountain areas are expanding, the other pore groundwater flow fields are basically stable from 2013. The annual variation of groundwater level is little and the annual land subsidence quantity is gradually decreased. The annual land subsidence rates decrease from 5.62 mm/a （2012） to 5.54 mm/a （2020） ,and the land subsidence caused by groundwater lowering is basically in control.