重庆市长寿区暴雨特征分析及基于“配料法”的暴雨预报模型研究

利用2011-2018年地面常规观测、高空探测等资料分析了长寿暴雨特征，研究了表征暴雨过程中水汽、动力、热力、不稳定条件的比湿、散度、垂直速度等物理参数及暴雨发生时各物理参数的阈值，构建了基于“配料法”的预报模型，并对模型进行试用、检验和评估。结果表明：长寿暴雨多发生在5月和9月，影响暴雨的主要天气系统按出现频率自高到低排列依次是高原槽、地面冷锋、西南涡、切变线、低空急流，32.1%的暴雨是在高空槽、切变线、西南涡和地面冷锋的共同作用下产生的，其他天气系统配置下较少产生暴雨。基于“配料法”的主观预报方法准确率较EC提高27%，漏报率较其他模式明显减小，TS评分较EC提高0.15；客观方法准确率较EC提高16%，TS评分较EC提高0.03。

Rainstorm Characteristics Analysis and Ingredients-based Prediction Model Research in Changshou District of Chongqing

Changshou rainstorm characteristics were studied by using conventional ground observation and high altitude detection data from 2011 to 2018. The physical parameters such as specific humidity, divergence and vertical velocity, which represent water vapor, dynamic, thermal and unstable conditions in the process of rainstorm were analyzed. The threshold of physical parameters when rainstorm occurs were researched. The Ingredients-based prediction model was constructed, tried, tested and evaluated. The results showed that: (1) Rainstorm usually occurs in May and September. The main weather systems affecting rainstorm were plateau trough, surface cold front, southwest vortex, shear line and low-level jet stream which sort from high to low according to occurrence frequency. 32.1% rainstorm were co-influenced by high altitude trough, shear line, southwest vortex and surface cold front. (2) The Ingredients-based subjective prediction method accuracy is 27% higher than that of EC, the empty reporting rate is significantly reduced compared with other models, and the TS score is 0.15 higher than that of EC. (3) The Ingredients-based objective prediction method accuracy is 16% higher than that of EC, and the TS score is 0.03 higher than that of EC.