Effects of climate change and extreme events on forest communities in the European North |
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Authors: | Linda Lundmark Albina Pashkevich Bruno Jansson Ulf Wiberg |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Social and Economic Geography, Ume? University, 901 87, Ume?, Sweden 2. Department of Economy and Society, H?gskolan Dalarna, 791 88, Falun, Sweden
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Abstract: | The European north is increasingly affected by changes in climate and climate variability. These changes and their causes
are global in scope but specific impacts vary considerably between different regions. Recent incidents and events show that
forest-resource based regions have difficulties in alleviating adverse effects of these changes. Also, the future socio-economic
impact is to date unexplored. Norrbotten in Sweden, Lappi in Finland and Arkhangelsk oblast in Russia are regions that differ
significantly in terms of their socio-economic characteristics and capacities. A modified employment multiplier model is used
to predict future changes. Scenarios of changing forest resources provide quantitative estimations of the sensitivity of regional
employment. These estimates are used to assess and discuss the adaptive capacities of the regions. Results show that Arkhangelsk
oblast is more vulnerable to climate variability than Norrbotten and Lappi. This is due to the continued dependency on natural
resources in combination with different capacities to counteract negative effects or to take advantage of the opportunities
offered by climate change in this region. |
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