典型工业化国家SO2排放影响因素分析及其对中国的启示

通过美国100年来SO2排放趋势分析, 对比日本、英国的相关数据资料, 发现SO2的排放与能源消费、经济发展、环境政策以及环保技术进步密切相关: 经济结构的转变和能源结构的调整是SO2减排的关键因素, 环保政策和技术进步是SO2减排的主要驱动力。典型国家SO2排放强度曲线均呈倒“U”型, 符合环境库兹涅茨曲线。SO2排放的拐点美国在人均GDP15000美元, 日本和英国在人均GDP9000～10000美元; 三个国家人均SO2排放强度的拐点在人均GDP5000～7000美元, 目前中国已经越过人均SO2排放的顶点。在此基础上本文提出了中国进一步减排SO2的建议。

Factor Analysis of SO2 Emission Trend in Typical Industrialized Countries and Its Revelation to China

Based on the data of sulfur dioxide emissions and economic development, this paper summarized the trend of pollutions in the USA, Japan, the UK and China. By analyzing the change of legislation on environmental protection and the development of Flue Gas Desulfurization(FGD) in the USA in comparison with the related data obtained from Japan, the United Kingdom and the European Union, the authors have found that SO2 emissions are closely related to such factors as energy resource consumption, economic development, environment policy and progress of environment protection technology. Transformation of economic structure and energy structure are key factors responsible for the reduction of pollution, while innovation policies and technological progress are the driving force for reduction of SO2 emissions. SO2 emission intensity curves show typical inverted U shape in all three countries, and the turning points of GDP per capita are about $9000 to $10000 in Japan and the UK, and about $15,000 in the USA. The turning point of SO2 emission intensity for GDP per capita is about $5000-7000. Therefore, China has surpassed the peak. At last, the authors put forward some proposals concerning the attaining of the environmental protection target in China.