Typhoon Track Forecast with a Hybrid GSI-ETKF Data Assimilation System

A hybrid grid-point statistical interpolation-ensemble transform Kalman filter (GSI-ETKF) data assimilation system for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was developed and applied to typhoon track forecast with simulated dropsonde observations. This hybrid system showed significantly improved results with respect to tropical cyclone track forecast compared to the standard GSI system in the case of Muifa in 2011. Further analyses revealed that the flow-dependent ensemble covariance was the major contributor to the better performance of the GSI-ETKF system than the standard GSI system; the GSI-ETKF system was found to be potentially able to adjust the position of the typhoon vortex systematically and better update the environmental field