近300a来古里雅与长江下游温度变化所受太阳活动、火山活动的影响分析

分析了近300a来古里雅冰芯δ¹⁸O值和长江下游温度变化与太阳活动、火山活动的关系.结果表明,无论在年际尺度,还是在10a尺度上,西昆仑山的古里雅冰芯和中国东部的长江下游地区的温度与以太阳辐照和太阳黑子周期长度为代用指标的太阳活动有良好的相关关系.火山活动对古里雅、合肥冬温和杭州春温有明显的降温作用.1810’s—1830’s时段不仅合肥冬温和杭州春温发生了剧烈的变化,而且处于高亚洲中西部的古里雅冰芯δ¹⁸O值也急剧下降,同时在北半球温度重建曲线上这一时段也是一个冷谷,表明该时段的气候变化可能具有全球性,而强烈的火山活动和微弱的太阳活动可能对温度的快速降低起触发作用。

Analyzing the Effect of Solar and Volcanic Activities on Tempera ture Variations in the Guliya Ice core Record and in the Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River over the Last Three Centuries

In this paper, the effect of solar and volcanic activities on temperature variations in Guliya ice core record and in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River over the past three centuries has been studied. Results are shown as follows:First, there is a very well correlation between temperature variations and solar activity whether on inter-annual or on decadal time scale. On inter-annual time scale, correlation coefficient is the maximum while Guliya ice core δ¹⁸O lags solar irradiance by 8 a. The correlation coefficient is the maximum under the condition that while Hefei winter temperature is in phase with solar irradiance. The best correlation is found when Hefei winter temperature leads Guliya ice core δ¹⁸O by 11 a. On decadal time scale, Guliya ice core δ¹⁸O, Hangzhou spring temperature and Hefei winter temperature vary more similarly with solar activity. This suggests that solar activity might exert some influence on the temperature recorded in Guliya ice core and in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River.Second, to some extent, volcanic activity is partly responsible for the temperature drop in Hefei region.The periods of higher temperature correspond to those of lower SO₄^2- values, and vise versa. The nine huge volcanic eruptions recorded in GISP2 match with the low-value periods in Hefei winter temperature. The 1690s was the coldest decade both for Hangzhou region and for Northern Hemisphere during the last 400 a. It is found that four massive volcanic eruptions (DVI≥4) occurred in the 1960s, suggesting that volcanic activity may be responsible for the temperature drop in Hefei region.Third, on the variation trends, Guliya ice core δ¹⁸O, Hangzhou spring temperature and Hefei winter temperature negatively correlate with ice core acidity. In other words, higher SO₄^2- concentration corresponds to lower temperature while lower SO₄^2- concentration is consistent with higher temperature. The temperature drop during the 1810s～1830s not only can be seen in Hefei winter temperature and Hangzhou spring temperature, but also in Guliya ice core δ¹⁸O series. Meanwhile, the reconstructed temperature curve of Northern Hemisphere was also characterized by cold valley. In addition, precipitation of 7 stations located in North China decreased during this period. All these facts indicate that the climate in the 1810s～1830s might be global and attributable to intensive volcanic activity and weak solar activity.