城市更新对房地产市场的时空影响效应:基于杭州市的实证研究

以杭州市为例,采用双重差分法研究城市更新对房地产市场的时空影响效应。研究结果发现： 城市更新在不同阶段对周边住宅价格产生的影响效应不同,项目建设和运营期分别对周边房价产生28.6%和32.0%的推升作用; 城市更新对周边住房价格的影响在空间上存在显著差异,对城市边缘区的提升作用比核心区高23.0%; 城市更新对周边房价影响随着距离增加显著降低,距离城市更新项目中心2.0 km以内、2.0~3.5 km范围对房价的推升作用分别为41.9%、24.9%和9.1%。最后建议政府完善房地产市场微观调控,建立完善长效机制。

Spatial and Temporal Effects of Urban Renewal on Real Estate Market: Empirical Research Based on Hangzhou City

China's urban development has entered into a period of large-scale urban renewal. Urban renewal can not only improve land use efficiency, but also improve neighborhood amenities and environmental quality. Urban renewal can bring capitalization effect into neighboring housing prices, and affect the development of real estate market. This study takes Hangzhou as a case and employs the difference-in-differences method to investigate the spatial and temporal effects of urban renewal on the real estate market. The results indicate that: 1) Urban renewal has a significant positive impact on the surrounding housing prices, but the degree of impact is different at the different periods of renewal. The surrounding housing prices will increase by 28.6% and 32% during the construction and operation periods of urban renewal projects. 2) Urban renewal has spatial different impact on the surrounding housing prices, and urban renewal would increase the housing prices 23% more in the urban fringe area than that in the urban core area. 3) The impact of urban renewal on the surrounding housing prices decreases with the distance. The urban renewal's impact on the surround housing price are 41.9% and 24.9%, respectively, at the distances of less 2.0 km and 2.0-3.5 km to city center. This study provides references for government better managing urban renewal and real estate market by revealing the significant spatial and temporal effects of urban renewal on surrounding housing prices.