“国际友城”的入境游效应及其时空异质性研究

近年来交叉研究已成为国内外旅游研究的主流范式。入境旅游研究一直以来又是旅游交叉研究的重点和热点。国际友城关系是一种重要的城市外交关系。探讨国际友城关系的入境游效应及其时空异质性,有助于挖掘入境旅游的驱动力。基于此,论文将国际友城关系(城市外交)纳入城市入境旅游影响因素模型,以中国60个典型城市1973—2017年的面板数据,运用工具变量两阶段回归法实证检验了城市缔结国际友城、国际友城累计数对城市外国游客规模增长的推动作用,以及这种作用是否因城市的区位差异而呈现出异质性。研究发现：① 城市缔结国际友城关系,显著增加了城市外国游客接待规模。平均而言,城市缔结国际友城比未缔结国际友城接待的外国游客多约150%~160%。② 城市缔结的国际友城累计数的增加对城市外国游客接待规模的正向促进作用平均达3.6%~3.9%,即城市缔结的国际友城累计数每增加1%,城市接待的外国游客规模平均将增加3.6~3.9个百分点。③ 缔结国际友城以及国际友城数量的增加对城市外国游客规模的推动作用存在显著的区域异质性。其中,中西部城市的异质性强于东部和东北部城市,这主要源于不同区域城市开展国际友城关系的时间长短以及与国际友城外方城市间的交流合作密切程度等因素所致。④ 理论上城市缔结的国际友城累计超过50对时,再增加国际友城数量对城市外国游客规模的推动作用将不再明显。研究成果不仅拓宽了传统入境旅游的研究视角,更丰富了入境旅游驱动力理论,同时为中国城市借助国际友城关系推动外国游客规模增长提供了理论依据。

Effect of international sister city on inbound tourism and its spatiotemporal heterogeneity

In recent years, cross-research has become the mainstream paradigm of tourism study in China and internationally. The study of inbound tourism has always been the focus and hotspot of tourism cross-research. International sister-city relationship is an important urban diplomatic relationship. Exploring the influence of international sister-city relationship on inbound tourism and its spatiotemporal heterogeneity is helpful for developing the driving factors of inbound tourism. In this study, international sister-city relationship (city diplomacy) is incorporated into the model of influencing factors of city inbound tourism. Based on the panel data of 60 typical cities in China from 1973 to 2017, this study used the regression method of instrumental variables (2SLS) to test whether the establishment of international sister-city relationship and the accumulated numbers of international sister cities significantly promote the growth of the scale of inbound foreign tourists in cities, and whether the growth shows spatial heterogeneity due to the locational difference of cities. The research findings show that: 1) The establishment of a city's international sister-city relationship significantly increased the size of the city's foreign tourist reception. On average, cities with international sister cities receive about 150%-160% more foreign tourists than those without international sister cities. 2) With the increase of the cumulative number of international sister cities established by cities, the positive promotional effect on the reception scale of foreign tourists reached 3.6%-3.9% on average. 3) There is a significant regional difference in the promotion of establishment of international sister cities and the effect of international sister cities on the scale of city foreign tourists. Among the 60 cities, the spatial heterogeneity of central and western cities is stronger than that of eastern and northeastern cities, which is mainly due to the differences in the time of establishing international sister-city relations and the frequency of exchanges and cooperation between cities in different regions. 4) Theoretically, when the accumulated count of international sister cities established by a city reaches 50 pairs, the promotional effect of increasing the number of international sister cities on the scale of foreign tourists will no longer be obvious. The research results not only expand the scope of traditional inbound tourism research, but also enrich the theory of inbound tourism driving force, which provide a theoretical basis for cities in the new era to promote the growth of foreign tourists by virtue of the international sister-city relationship.