2000-2015年东北地区县域人口与经济耦合协调演变及空间差异——以辽宁省为例

国家对振兴东北老工业基地的战略部署格外重视,尤其在“新东北现象”出现后,东北地区的未来发展趋势再次成为国内外关注的热点。选取东北三省人口与经济发展变化特征显著的辽宁省作为研究对象,通过建立人口与经济系统指标体系和耦合协调模型,探究2000—2015年辽宁省人口与经济耦合协调演变特征及空间差异。结果表明：东北振兴以来,辽宁省人口与经济耦合关系逐渐加深,呈现高水平耦合发展趋势,但协调关系存在明显的变动,中度失调县区的数量不断增多,基本协调的区域有所下降,且耦合不协调地区以省内陆边界地带为主;耦合度增强、协调度降低的县市具有共同的特征,人口与经济变化不同步,人口综合指数一直下降,而经济综合指数却有增有降,也是导致地区失调的主要原因;辽宁省人口与经济既耦合又协调的地区还存在一定的“圈层+轴线”的空间结构,其中圈层是指以沈阳、鞍山、大连的三圈层结构（由中心向周围递减）,且离中心地区越远,其耦合协调水平越低;轴线结构是处于哈大高铁线路上的沈大城市走廊,形成一条较明显的“梯度轴”。

Population and economic coupling coordinated evolution and spatial differences at county level in Northeast China during 2000-2015: Taking Liaoning province as an example

China attaches great importance to the strategic deployment of revitalizing the old industrial bases in Northeast China. Especially after the emergence of the "New Northeast Phenomenon", the future development trend of Northeast China became the focus of attention at home and abroad again. This paper, selecting Liaoning province, which is featured by obvious change of population and economic development, as the research object, establishes the index system and coupling coordination model of population and economy system, and explores the spatial evolution and differences of population and economy coupling coordination in Liaoning province since the "Revitalization of Northeast China". The results show that, during 2000-2015, the coupling relationship between population and economy in Liaoning province was gradually strengthened, showing a high level development trend. However, there were obvious fluctuations in the coordination relationship. The number of moderately incoordinated counties had been increasing, and the primary coordination areas had declined, and the main incoordinated coupling areas were the inland border areas of Liaoning province. The counties and cities with enhanced coupling degree and reduced coordination degree shared common characteristics. Population and economic changes were not synchronized, and the population composite index had been declining, while the economic composite index increased or decreased, which is also the main cause for regional imcoordination. In Liaoning province, where population and economy are both coupled and coordinated, there still exists a certain spatial structure of "circle + axis", in which circle refers to the three-circle structure (decreasing from center to surroundings) of Shenyang, Anshan and Dalian, and the farther away from the central area, the lower the level of coupling and coordination; the axis structure is the urban corridor of Shenyang-Dalian on the Harbin-Dalian High-speed Railway line, which forms a more obvious "gradient axis".