Uncertainty estimates for surface runoff models |
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| Institution: | 1. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias y Forestales, UNLP, Calles 60 y 119, CC 31, 1900 La Plata, Argentina;2. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Argentina;3. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria, Agencia de Extensión Rural Chascomús, Mitre 202, Chascomús, Buenos Aires, Argentina;1. Department of Civil Engineering, Geospatial Information Science Research Center (GISRC), Faculty of Engineering, University Putra Malaysia, 43400 Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia;2. Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, Abureyhan Faculty, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran;1. end-use Efficiency Research Group, Department of Energy, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy;2. Université Paris-Est, Institut de Recherche en Constructibilité, ESTP, Cachan, France;3. Efficacity, Marne la Vallée Cedex 2, France;4. Department of Architecture and Technology, Faculty of Architecture and Design, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NTNU, Trondheim, Norway;5. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NTNU, Trondheim, Norway;6. SINTEF Building and Infrastructure, Department of Architecture, Materials and Structures, Trondheim, Norway;1. National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia;2. School of the Environment, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia;3. GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand |
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| Abstract: | A lower bound for variance in surface runoff modelling estimates is advanced. The bound is derived using a linear unit hydrograph approach which utilizes a discretization of the catchment into an arbitrary number of subareas, a linear routing technique for channel flow effects, a variable effective rainfall distribution over the catchment, and calibration parameter distributions developed in correlating rainfall-runoff data by the model. The uncertainty bound reflects the dominating influence of the unknown rainfall distribution over the catchment and is expressed as a distribution function that can be reduced only by supplying additional rainfall-runoff data. It is recommended that this uncertainty distribution in modelling results be included in flood control design studies in order to incorporate a prescribed level of confidence in flood protection facilities. |
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