Stochastic models and spectra of interannual variability of mean annual sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul 133-791, Republic of Korea;2. Department of Farm, Power & Machinery, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh;3. LMC Clinic, Mymensingh, Bangladesh;1. Dipartimento di Scienze Molecolari e Nanosistemi, Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia, Via Torino 155, Mestre, VE 30172, Italy;2. Dipartimento di Chimica \"Giacomo Ciamician\", Università di Bologna, Via F. Selmi 2, Bologna 40126, Italy;3. Scuola Superiore Meridionale, Largo San Marcellino 10, Naples 80136, Italy;4. Dipartimento di Chimica Industriale \"Toso Montanari\", Università di Bologna, Viale del Risorgimento 4, Bologna 40136, Italy |
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| Abstract: | Estimates of one- and two-variate autoregressive models of mean annual sea surface temperature (SST) in five Smed squares in the North Atlantic are obtained by analysing time series of SST, 1881–1970. Year-to-year variations of SST are shown to follow the AR model of order one with a regression parameter of 0.5 so that their generalized spectrum decreases monotonically and relatively fast with frequency while the limits of statistical predictability amount up to two years. Two-variate models of SST reveal frequency-dependent time lags up to three years and possess slightly better statistical predictability. A feedback in the system of warm and cold currents is found with a characteristic time scale of about six years, which plays an important role in the system's energy budget. |
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