WRF模式不同分辨率模拟分析

利用WRF中尺度模式对内蒙古地区2011年降水天气过程进行模拟分析,主要研究模式不同水平分辨率对温度和降水的影响。结果表明:水平分辨率为27km时,模式可以较好的模拟我区的降水落区和强度;不同分辨率下模拟单站降水结果存在差异,分辨率提高,模式空报率下降,但是漏报率却明显增加,TS评分降低;分辨率提高与温度预报准确率无明显的正相关,模式前12h预报准确率明显高于后12h,模式分辨率提高对后12h温度预报准确率结果有明显改善。

Simulation Research of Different Resolution Ratio on WRF Model

The aim of this paper is to study the effect of model horizontal resolution on temperature and precipitation by WRF in Inner Mongolia in 2011.The results showed that the model with the horizontal resolution ratio of 27kin have good performance in simulating the area and intensity of precipitation in our region. Meanwhile, the simulated precipitation of single station which result in the performance variations under different resolutions ratio, when the resolution ratio was raised, TS score and the rate of vacancy forecast decreased, but the missing report rate increased significantly. There have no obvious positive correlation between the increased resolution ratio and the forecast accuracy of temperature. The forecast accuracy of 12-hours was significantly higher than the latterl2-hours, but the latter improved more obviously by the increased resolution ratio.