Simulation of spatial and temporal trends in nitrate concentrations at the regional scale in the Upper Dyle basin,Belgium

Models are the only tools capable of predicting the evolution of groundwater systems at a regional scale, by taking into account a large amount of information. This study presents the association of a water balance model (WetSpass) with a groundwater flow and solute transport model (SUFT3D, saturated and unsaturated flow and transport in 3D) in order to simulate the present and future groundwater quality in terms of nitrate in the Upper Dyle basin (439 km²) Belgium. The HFEMC (hybrid finite element mixing cell) method implemented in the SUFT3D code is used to model groundwater flow and nitrate transport. Spatially distributed recharge, modelled with WetSpass, is considered for prescribing the recharge to the groundwater flow model. The feasibility of linking the WetSpass model with the finite-elements SUFT3D code is demonstrated. Time evolution and distribution of nitrate concentration are then simulated using the calibrated model. Nitrate inputs are spatially distributed according to land use. The spatial simulations and temporal trends are compared with previously published data on this aquifer and show good results.