Vector fragility surfaces for reinforced concrete frames in Europe

Traditional approaches to damage estimation in earthquake loss modelling make use of relationships between scalar intensity measures and scalar engineering demand parameters. In this study we present a series of vector-valued fragility surfaces computed for low- and mid-rise reinforced concrete frames typical of those found in Europe. The use of vectors of intensity measures can result in conditional standard deviations of logarithmic engineering demand parameters that are up to 50 % smaller than those from traditional scalar methods. These reductions have significant implications for the shapes of loss curves, particularly for long return periods. The most efficient vector corresponds to a combination of spectral acceleration and a spectral shape parameter, (langle ln S_a, ln N_prangle ) , when used to predict maximum interstorey drifts. The study also demonstrates that engineering demand parameters have significant heteroskedasticity with respect to various intensity measures and that this feature must be modelled correctly when constructing fragility curves. This feature of the models presented herein has not previously been accounted for during the development of fragility curves or surfaces.