Variation in the intensity of tropical cyclones in connection with global warming |
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Authors: | M. I. Yaroshevich |
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Affiliation: | (1) NPO Taifun, ul. Pobedy 4, Obninsk, Kaluga oblast, 249038, Russia |
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Abstract: | In connection with global warming, the growth in the intensity of tropical hurricanes is predicted. The onset of this intensification is partially illustrated by the western Atlantic cyclonic zone [1]. It is noted in [1]that, due to global warming, the sea-surface temperature (SST) over the entire world has increased by 0.6°C since 1970. Since the SST basically determines the energy of tropical hurricanes, it is inferred that global warming will lead to an enhancement in their intensity. This publication presents a plot of the dynamics of SST annual mean anomalies for the northwestern Atlantic and pays special attention to significant excess mean temperatures since 1994. The anomalies are determined with respect to the mean temperature calculated from SSTs over 1901–1970. The same plot also shows that the SST at the end of the 1940s and during the 1950s exceeded the mean temperature by about 0.3 or even 0.4°C, decreasing gradually to negative anomalies (?0.3°C) in 1973. After that, the temperature started to increase again. Figure 1 shows a detail of this plot, which relates to the period 1950–2000. |
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