Impact of modified physics in limited area model forecasts |
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Authors: | J Sanjay S S Singh |
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Institution: | (1) Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, 411 008 Pune, India |
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Abstract: | A number of physical factors have been introduced to improve limited area model forecasts. The factors include land surface
fluxes, shallow convection and radiation. The model including these additional physical factors (modified physics) is run
for five cases of monsoon depression which made landfall over the Indian coast, and the results are compared with those of
the control run. The forecasts are verified by computing the root mean square and mean errors. The differences in these skill
scores between the two model runs are tested for their statistical significance. It is found that the modified physics has
a statistically significant effect on the model skill with the maximum impact on the mean sea level pressure and the temperature.
Detailed analyses of mean sea level pressure, wind, rainfall and temperature further confirm that the modified physics has
maximum impact on mean sea level pressure and temperature and marginal impact on wind and rainfall. Furthermore, analyses
of some model parameters related to physics at a grid point for one case of depression were done. The results show that the
inclusion of the land surface physics, shallow convection and radiative processes have produced a better precipitation forecast
over the grid point. |
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Keywords: | Limited area model modified physics monsoon depression |
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