基于CA的城市人口密度分布动态模拟——以长沙市人口密度变化为例

利用元胞自动机（CA）进行模拟可以帮助认识城市人口密度分布的演变过程，并为相关的调控提供决策依据。以长沙市为例，由元胞自动机层构建了精确到街道的长沙市人口密度分布仿真模型，对2000～2005年人口密度分布进行重建，与实际情况对比，整体预测精确度达76％以上；并对2010年，2015年人口密度分布进行了预测，结果表明，长沙市仍处于城市发展的初期阶段，市区人口密度分布受交通通达度、距市中心距离、公共设施便利性、环境、政府主导等多因子影响，总体呈现典型的Clark分布。

The Dynamic Simulation of Urban Population Distribution Based on CA --Changes of population density in Changsha

Using cellular automata （CA） simulation can help understanding the evolutionary process of the distribution of urban population density, and provides the basis for the related decision. The paper takes downtown of Changsha city as a study area, and constructs a layer of cellular automata to reconstruct the population density distribution model of 2000 to 2005 which accurately to the streets of Changsha city, compared with the actual situation the overall prediction accuracy to 76% above; And forecast the 2010, 2015 population density distribution, results show that the urbarl development in Changsha is still in the experimental stage, distri- bution of urban population density is influenced by downtown traffic, public facilities, environment and the government leading such factors which is a typical distribution of Clark.