Evaluation of the STORM-Time Ionospheric Empirical Model for the Bastille Day event

Recent theoretical model simulations of the ionospheric response to geomagnetic storms have provided the understanding for the development of an empirical storm-time ionospheric model (STORM). The empirical model is driven by the previous time-history of a _p, and is designed to scale the quiet-time F-layer critical frequency (f _o F ₂) to account for storm-time changes in the ionosphere. The model provides a useful, yet simple tool for modeling of the perturbed ionosphere. The quality of the model prediction has been evaluated by comparing with the observed ionospheric response during the Bastille Day (July 2000) storm. With a maximum negative D _st of −290 nT and an a _p of 400, this magnetic perturbation was the strongest of year 2000. For these conditions, the model output was compared with the actual ionospheric response from all available stations, providing a reasonable latitudinal and longitudinal coverage. The comparisons show that the model captures the decreases in electron density particularly well in the northern summer hemisphere. In winter, the observed ionospheric response was more variable, showing a less consistent response, imposing a more severe challenge to the empirical model. The value of the model has been quantified by comparing the root mean square error (RMSE) of the STORM predictions with the monthly mean. The results of this study illustrate that the STORM model reduces the RMSE at the peak of the disturbance from 0.36 to 0.22, a significant improvement over climatology.