An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption |
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Authors: | Gareth S Jones Jonathan M Gregory Peter A Stott Simon F B Tett Robert B Thorpe |
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Institution: | (1) Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom;(2) Met Office, Hadley Centre (Reading Unit), Meteorology Building, University of Reading, Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading, RG6 6BB, United Kingdom;(3) CGAM, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading, RG6 6BB, United Kingdom |
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Abstract: | Volcanic ‘super-eruptions’ have been suggested to have significantly influenced the Earth’s climate, perhaps causing glaciations
and impacting on the human population. Climatic changes following a hypothetical ‘super-eruption’ are simulated using a coupled
atmosphere ocean general circulation model, incorporating scaled volcanic stratospheric aerosols. Assumptions are made about
the stratospheric sulphate aerosol loading, size distribution, lifetime, chemical make up and spatial distribution. As this
study is concentrating on the physical climatological impacts over long timescales, microphysics and chemical interactive
processes are not simulated. Near-surface temperatures fall by as much as 10 K globally for a few months and a considerable
deviation from normal temperatures continues for several decades. A warming pattern is evident over northern land masses during
the winter due to increased longwave forcing and a positive AO mode. The overturning rate of the North Atlantic thermohaline
circulation doubles in intensity. Snow and ice increases in extent to a maximum coverage of 35% of the Earth. Despite these
and other impacts longer term climatic changes that could lead to a transition to a glaciation do not occur, for present day
boundary conditions and one possible plausible aerosol loading. |
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