Near-field probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with characteristic earthquake effects

In conventional seismic hazard analysis, uniform distribution over area and magnitude range is assumed for the evaluation of source seismicity which is not able to capture peculiar characteristic of near-fault ground motion well. For near-field hazard analysis, two important factors need to be considered: (1) rupture directivity effects and (2) occurrence of scenario characteristic ruptures in the nearby sources. This study proposed a simple framework to consider these two effects by modifying the predictions from the conventional ground motion model based on pulse occurrence probability and adjustment of the magnitude frequency distribution to account for the rupture characteristic of the fault. The results of proposed approach are compared with those of deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. The results indicate that characteristic earthquake and directivity consideration both have significant effects on seismic hazard analysis estimates. The implemented approach leads to results close to deterministic seismic hazard analysis in the short period ranges (T < 1.0 s) and follows probabilistic seismic hazard analysis results in the long period ranges (T > 1.0 s). Finally, seismic hazard maps based on the proposed method could be developed and compared with other methods.