2013年6月喀什地区一次强冰雹天气的成因分析

利用常规气象观测资料、ECMWF细网格资料、FY-2E卫星云图、喀什新一代多普勒雷达资料和新疆区域自动站气象观测资料，对2013年6月18日发生在新疆喀什地区境内的一次罕见的强冰雹天气从天气形势、中尺度系统、水汽条件、雷达回波特征等方面进行了综合分析。分析显示，此次冰雹天气是在有利的大尺度环流背景下产生的，冰雹出现前，雹区附近低层到地面存在中尺度切变线、涌线和地面中低压等多个中尺度系统；水汽在中低层集中，并不断向冰雹区输送；雹区附近强烈的辐合上升运动为冰雹的出现提供了水汽和动力条件；探空物理量参数有利于大气不稳定能量的聚积和爆发。分析此次强冰雹天气的成因，有利于改进南疆地区冰雹短时和临近预报、预警的基本思路。

Cause Analysis of One Strong Hail Weather in Kashi Area in June 2013

By using the routine data, ECMWF data, FY-2E satellite's cloud pictures, the new generation of doppler radar data of kashgar and the regional meteorological automatism station data in Xinjiang ,one strong hail weather in Kashi area on June 18,2013 was analyzed.The results showed that:the hail was happened in the favorable large scale circulation background and has many mesocale systems which included the mesoscale shear line, pressure jump line, mesoscale low near the hail area before it happened. The water vapor was concentrated and transported on the low level and the strong convergence ascending motion bring humidity and dynamic conditions for the hail.There also has some physical parameters helped the accumulation and the outbreak of the instability energy.The analysis of this strong hail weather can help us to improve the thinking for the short-term forecast and the early warning of the hail in southern areas of Xinjiang region.