Probability hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera,Italy |
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Authors: | Email author" target="_blank">Jacopo?SelvaEmail author Giovanni?Orsi Mauro?Antonio?Di Vito Warner?Marzocchi Laura?Sandri |
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Institution: | (1) Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, via D. Creti 12, 40128 Bologna, Italy;(2) Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Via Diocleziano 328, 80124 Naples, Italy;(3) Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma 1, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, Italy |
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Abstract: | The Campi Flegrei caldera is a restless structure affected by general subsidence and ongoing resurgence of its central part.
The persistent activity of the system and the explosive character of the volcanism lead to a very high volcanic hazard that,
combined with intense urbanization, corresponds to a very high volcanic risk. One of the largest sources of uncertainty in
volcanic hazard/risk assessment for Campi Flegrei is the spatial location of the future volcanic activity. This paper presents
and discusses a long-term probability hazard map for vent opening in case of renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera,
which shows the spatial conditional probability for the next vent opening, given that an eruption occurs. The map has been
constructed by building a Bayesian inference scheme merging prior information and past data. The method allows both aleatory
and epistemic uncertainties to be evaluated. The probability map of vent opening shows that two areas of relatively high probability
are present within the active portion of the caldera, with a probability approximately doubled with respect to the rest of
the caldera. The map has an immediate use in evaluating the areas of the caldera prone to the highest volcanic hazard. Furthermore,
it represents an important ingredient in addressing the more general problem of quantitative volcanic hazards assessment at
the Campi Flegrei caldera. |
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