Assessing links between upper atmospheric vorticity patterns and directional changes in hurricane tracks

Links between hurricane track changes and upper atmospheric potential vorticity (PV) anomaly patterns were identified qualitatively and analytically between 1990 and 2005 in the Western Atlantic. Strong track changes of hurricanes, particularly the constellations that triggered northward acceleration of the storm systems, were associated with upper-air PV patterns characterized by strongly positive anomalies to the northeast in combination with weak PV to the north of the system center. Constellations that triggered eventual eastward acceleration were associated with strongly positive PV anomalies to the northwest in combination with weak PV to the northeast of the system center. These results may assist hurricane forecasters and modelers in identifying possible signatures of future tropical cyclone tracks.