Stress modeling to determine the through-going active fault geometry of the Western North Anatolian Fault,Turkey

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is a 1200 km long dextral strike-slip fault which is part of an east-west trending dextral shear zone (NAF system) between the Anatolian and Eurasian plates. The North Anatolian shear zone widens to the west, complicating potential earthquake rupture paths and highlighting the importance of understanding the geometry of active fault systems. In the central portion of the NAF system, just west of the town of Bolu, the NAF bifurcates into the northern and southern strands, which converge, then diverge to border the Marmara Sea. At their convergence east of the Marmara Sea, these two faults are linked through the Mudurnu Valley. The westward continuation of these two fault traces is marked by further complexities in potential active fault geometry, particularly in the Marmara Sea for the northern strand, and towards the Biga Peninsula for the southern strand. Potential active fault geometries for both strands of the NAF are evaluated by comparing stress models of various fault geometries in these regions to a record of focal mechanisms and inferred paleostress from a lineament analysis. For the Marmara region, the best-fit active fault geometry consists of the northern and southern bounding faults of the Marmara basin, as the model representing this geometry better replicated primary stress orientations seen in focal mechanism data and stress field interpretations. In the Biga Peninsula region, the active geometry of the southern strand has the southern fault merging with the northern fault through a linking fault in a narrow topographic valley. This geometry was selected over the other two as it best replicated the maximum horizontal stresses determined from focal mechanism data and a lineament analysis.