| 北天山地震带测震学预测方案初探 |
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| 引用本文： | 周波. 北天山地震带测震学预测方案初探[J]. 高原地震, 2011, 23(1): 27-32 |
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| 作者姓名： | 周波 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆维吾尔自治区石河子市地震局,新疆,石河子,832000 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于测震学A6值、地震异常变化及空区等,对新疆北天山地震带1970年以来5级以上地震进行了系统分析,形成了该区中强震初步预测方案,即:新疆北天山地震带西区Ab值低于均值半年,东区A6值低于均值3年;出现3级以上地震空区;2°×2°异型区内地震异常增强;出现6个月以上地震平静,就可综合考虑作出5级以上地震的预报.
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| 关 键 词： | 新疆 北天山地震带 测震学 地震预测 |
PRIMARY DISCUSSION ON SEISMOLOGICAL PREDICTION IN NORTH OF TIANSHAN SEISMIC BELT |
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| ZHOU Bo. PRIMARY DISCUSSION ON SEISMOLOGICAL PREDICTION IN NORTH OF TIANSHAN SEISMIC BELT[J]. Plateau Earthquake Research, 2011, 23(1): 27-32 |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Bo |
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| Affiliation: | ZHOU Bo(Earthquake Administration of Shihezi City,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Shihezi 832000,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the seismic Ab value,anomalies and seismic gaps,the earthquakes with Ms≥ 5.0 since 1970 in north of Tianshan seismic belt are analyzed,and got the middle-strong earthquakes prediction as following： if Ab value in the west of the belt is lower than the mean value for half a year;or Ab value in the east of the belt is lower than the mean value for three years;or it appears Ms≥3.0 earthquake gaps;or the earthquake anomalies are strengthened in 2° ×2° precursory area;or it appears earthquake quiet for six months,the earthquakes with Ms≥5.0 may be predicted in the area. |
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| Keywords: | Xinjiang North of Tianshan seismic belt Seismometry Earthquake prediction |
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